Putin 2036?: Abrupt term limit changes
And don't expect any protests because all mass gatherings are banned re: coronavirus
Welcome to another edition of “From Russia With Mila” — where I cover the intersection of Eastern Europe and the media. The global coronavirus pandemic is causing fears and resulting in suspended travel from Europe to the US, regional lockdowns — like in Italy — and mass closures of schools and public transit…
Meanwhile, in Russia
The presidential term limit clock is on track to be reset, allowing Russian President Vladimir Putin to be president for another six-year term — potentially another 12 years. This would put Putin in power for 36 years, making him the longest ruling head of the nation since Peter the Great, who reigned for 42 years. Joseph Stalin was in power for 31 years as General Secretary of the Communist Party’s Central Committee.
How did this all come about?
While no one really expected Putin to give up power in 2024, when he would have been ineligible to run again for president, the seemingly sudden term limit nullification suggestion on March 10 to the State Duma was unexpected, and the entire process — from proposal to consideration to adoption of legislation — took just five hours.
The proposed constitutional amendment that would either reset incumbent Putin’s term clock or cancel out term limits altogether came from the first and youngest woman to have traveled on a solo mission to space — United Russia (Putin’s political party) deputy Valentina Tereshkova.
After Tereshkova proposed this change, Putin made an unusual surprise visit to give a speech to the Duma. In this speech, he did not endorse eliminating term limits altogether, but he did endorse his ruling clock being reset — as long as the Constitutional Court upholds the amendment.
“I am completely convinced that a strong presidential vertical is necessary for our country,” [Putin] said. “The current situation in the economy and in the security sphere yet again reminds us [ . . .] that we need this for stability.” (FT)
Putin had announced constitutional changes back on Jan. 15, and the Duma was already in the process of voting to adopt other controversial changes to the constitution — such as marriage being defined as a union between a man and a woman, a proclamation on Russians’ faith in God, and a ban on giving away any territory (strengthens Russia’s grip on Crimea, annexed in 2014 from Ukraine in an act widely viewed as an affront to international law). (BBC)
[Putin’s] speech was part of a choreographed display that confirmed what people close to the Kremlin said had been a done-deal since he announced the constitutional changes in January — that he would seek to stay in power — according to analysts. (FT)
As for what’s next — after the Duma, along with the upper house of parliament, the Federation Council, voted to pass them on March 11, the amendments now go to an extraordinary session of all of Russia’s regional legislatures. More than half of the country’s voters will need to support the amendments in an April 22 referendum.
“The president is the guarantor of the constitution, of [the] country’s security, its domestic stability and domestic evolutionary growth,” [Putin] said. “We’ve had enough revolutions.” (FT)
How are people reacting?
While all this is happening in the lower house of Russian parliament, Moscow’s Mayor Sergey Sobyanin announced a ban of all mass gatherings until April 10, citing coronavirus fears.
Earlier on March 10, multiple opposition groups, including exiled oil tycoon and former oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s advocacy organization Open Russia, had filed permits to protest the new amendments to the constitution. Those demonstrations would have taken place on March 21 and 22, and would have likely brought out tens of thousands of people.
After the amendment proposal chaos, opposition politician Alexey Navalny tweeted that he expected the Kremlin to ban all public events due to fears of coronavirus spreading.
On March 8, Russia announced that those refusing to self-quarantine for two weeks following travel to countries with large outbreaks will face up to five years of prison. Around 100 Chinese students in Moscow reported to have violated orders to self-isolate will be deported from Russia, according to Russian business news outlet Kommersant. The Moscow Times has an updating timeline of Russia’s responses to the coronavirus outbreak here.
Pouring oil on troubled waters?
As the coronavirus outbreak dramatically slowed the usual heavy traffic of oil imports from Saudi Arabia and Russia to especially countries in Asia over the weekend, the long-standing deal between the two oil-rich countries fell through, causing global markets to spiral.
Vox explains what happened after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a cartel of 15 countries of oil-producing nations, met in Vienna to discuss plans moving forward as the global coronavirus pandemic decreases demand for oil. Even though Russia is not a member of OPEC, it was invited to the conference, because three years ago it made a deal known as OPEC-Plus to coordinate oil production levels with the group.
Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s leader, suggested members cut oil production to keep oil prices higher and bring in more money for countries in the bloc more dependent on crude exports. Lower demand (China cut imports by 20 percent last month) leads to a drop in oil prices. Russia opted out of the plan to cut production, and this sent the price of oil sharply down.r (Foreign Policy)
According to Vox, “some say Russia wants prices to stay low to hurt the American shale oil industry or is gearing up to seize a bigger sliver of Asian and global oil demand for itself.” (Meantime, Russian state media agency TASS says Saudi Arabia and the US caused the market to collapse “to destabilize the situation in Russia.”)
Aware of America’s fragile oil industry, Russia’s decision is likely “aimed in part at drowning US shale oil companies that rely on higher prices in a sea of cheap crude,” according to CNN. Russia lost its title in 2018 as the world’s largest oil producer after the growth of fracking in the US.
The coronavirus has posed an even deeper challenge to the oil industry. Countless flight cancellations, factory closures and a slowdown in commuting has seriously weakened the world's appetite for oil. Global oil demand is expected to drop this year for the first time since 2009, according to the International Energy Agency.
“The last two months have been a horror movie for energy investors,” Stewart Glickman, energy analyst at CFRA Research, wrote in a note to clients Monday. “We have both a demand shock (coronavirus) and a supply shock (OPEC-Plus breakdown) happening at the same time. In other words, two boogeymen, not one.”
The oil market can bounce back if Saudi Arabia’s price war forces Russia to agree to production cuts, but Putin, of course, is not known for giving in.
And that’s all for this week’s wrap-up of Russia’s constitutional changes and the coronavirus pandemic’s effect on global markets. Reach out with any questions or comments, connect on Twitter for the latest, and stop back for more on media and Eastern Europe!
— Мила (Mila)